@Article{GuimarăesCoVaSiSaArSo:2016:ClChPr,
author = "Guimar{\~a}es, Sullyandro Oliveira and Costa, Alexandre
Ara{\'u}jo and Vasconcelos J{\'u}nior, Francisco das Chagas and
Silva, Emerson Mariano da and Sales, Domingo Cassain and
Ara{\'u}jo J{\'u}nior, Luiz Martins de and Souza, Samuel
Galv{\~a}o",
affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Cear{\'a} (UFCE)} and {Universidade
Federal do Cear{\'a} (UFCE)} and {Universidade Federal do
Cear{\'a} (UFCE)} and {Universidade Federal do Cear{\'a} (UFCE)}
and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Universidade Federal do Cear{\'a} (UFCE)} and {Universidade
Federal do Cear{\'a} (UFCE)}",
title = "Climate change projections over the Brazilian northeast of the
CMIP5 and CORDEX models",
journal = "Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia",
year = "2016",
volume = "31",
number = "3",
pages = "337--365",
month = "July/Sept.",
keywords = "CMIP5, CORDEX, Northeast Brazil.",
abstract = "This work addresses the performance and projections of climate
simulations from CMIP5 global models and CORDEX regional climate
models over Northeast Brazil (NEB). For this study, NEB climate
was characterized by the following variables: near surface air
temperature (TAS), precipitation (PR), potential
evapotranspiration (ETo), and aridity index (IA). In verification
methodology of the models we utilized statistical metrics such as
mean square error, statistical bias, Pearson correlation and
concordance index. In general, the ensemble mean of the
simulations (M) produces a significant representation of NEB
recent (1985-2005) climate. The projections ofMfor scenarios of
future emissions of greenhouse gases, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, show
generalized increase in the temperature, with 2079-2099
(long-term) temperature anomalies over NEB ranging between 2.1 °C
(RCP4.5) and 4 °C (RCP8.5). The ETo rates are more likely to
increase during the 21st century, with the RCP8.5 long-term mean
15% higher than reference values for recent climate. Projection of
precipitation is inconclusive due to significant spread among the
individual simulations, with M indicating a anomaly of-1.6% in
RCP8.5 long-term mean. Projected IA is reduced in most simulations
of future climate, suggesting a greater chance of increased
aridity over NEB during this century.",
doi = "10.1590/0102-778631320150150",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-778631320150150",
issn = "0102-7786",
language = "pt",
targetfile = "guimaraes_projecoes.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "04 maio 2024"
}